Speakers - 2026

Title: Multipronged approach to panedmic surge surveillance: A case of lake region economic bloc, kenya

Abstract

Introduction: Pandemic preparedness, response, mitigation, and recovery require accurate prediction, early detection, and surge monitoring for enhanced planning, and preparedness associated with allocation of resources. Surges are characterized by commodity stockout, fewer skilled health workers, little coordination, no referral mechanisms, and management protocols -health infrastructure can be overrun.

Objective: To predict surges early before infections begin; early detection of pathogens before they manifest in humans; and monitor infections.

Methods:

1. Formulated predictive model which used local data to forecast infection surges.

2. Once the forecast period is established, waste water testing begins two weeks before the expected date.

3. For imported infections, samples of waste water at the points of entry are tested: airport, seaport, border points, and bus terminus.

4. Endemic infection sample of waste water in local markets, and residential sewer lines are collected and tested for pathogens (SARS-COV-2).

5. Positive samples and preserved for genome sequencing.

6. Real-time digital platform linked to dashboards are used to monitor the hospitalization and variants.

Results: Kenya’s COVID-19 Surges were accurately predicted months in advance; wastewater testing detected SARS-CoV-2 pathogens two weeks before infections appeared. Real-time monitoring of infections and hospitalizations enabled timely responses, and genomic sequencing successfully identified and characterized variants driving each surge. Policy briefs on predictions, variants, and patient outcomes were widely disseminated to stakeholders and the media, enhancing informed decision-making. Over seven peer-reviewed publications emerged from these efforts, contributing to global knowledge. Importantly, despite seven waves, regional health infrastructure was not overwhelmed, reflecting effective planning and system resilience.

Conclusion: The region was kept safe by three steps of pandemic monitoring: mathematical prediction; waste water sample testing, and real-time dashboard infections/surge monitoring. Public safety was enhanced because the sequential policy briefs and advisories shared with authorities were implemented. The local media tracked implementation of policy briefs and advisories because they received copies.